Witrado learning baseball, part 1

Anthony Witrado is starting to make Michael Hunt look like Buster Olney.

Last week we learned that he didn't know that MLB teams can't trade draft picks- I appreciate his honesty in bringing this up again, I guess my main question is why the MJS give a beat writing assignment to someone who is still learning the rules?

With his mailbags starting to read like Joe Morgan chat transcripts, lets take a look at some gems from this week.

My favorite parts:

Q: Spaulding of Omaha, NE - What are the chances, with Rickie Weeks still playing absolutely horribly and now reinjuring his thumb...(blah blah blah)

A: (Apologizes for last week)...Again, I will try to be more informed when answering these questions. Now for this week's bag... I think people in the organization see that Weeks has hurt the team but Ned Yost will stay loyal to his second baseman, this I have no doubt about. It seems that Yost is going to be Stubborn on this one, and I don't know why. Everyone in the press box is sort of baffled by this one.

Ok, so you want to be more informed? Great. Let me point you to a pretty good site. Its called Baseball-Reference.com. Its really pretty cool -- pretty much tells you everything. Spaulding in Omaha might want to check out this site as well. (is this a bad Caddyshack reference or is it over my head? Wasn't Danny Noonan going to school in Nebraska while Spaulding was living off Judge Smails the rest of this life?)

One thing you can check out is how a player has been playing lately. Take for instance, Rickie Weeks in the second half. These stats aren't updated with today's game, so they are slightly off - but Weeks has been good for a .273/.369/.432 line. That's not all bad.

So, I'm going to give you two options as to why Weeks is playing.

1. Different people in the organization take a look at what Weeks did last year (OPS+ of 108) as a barometer of what he is capable of. They also look at his recent numbers to see how he is trending. Scouts look at his swing, see if he is lost or if he is still showing good signs. Yost gives his thoughts, how he feels about how Weeks has played, how is skills will fit in his lineup....and together they decide Weeks should get about 4 starts a week and Durham fills in every once in a while.
2. All of the above people decide that Weeks is horrible and shouldn't play, but Yost says, "you know what? Screw it he's playing."

Witrado goes with #2. Sigh.
......

Q: Stuart of Minneapolis - Why doe JJ Hardy take the first pitch on every AB? Wouldn't it be advantageous to suprise the pitcher and take a swing every now and then?

A: Brewers Mailbag - Considering Rickie Weeks is so aggressive, I think Hardy should try to see some pitches before the middle of the order comes up. Although, that would make some sense since he is a career .347 hitter when hitting the first pitch into play

Couple things here. Weeks is second on the team in walks and also strikes out a lot. I would guess that he sees a lot of pitches.

That's just a guess. It would be nice if there was a stat that measured how many pitches a player sees per plate appearance. NO WAY. There is! Weeks is 7th in the NL in pitches seen per PA. Not too surprising due to all the walks/Ks. Doesn't that by definition make him patient, maybe to a fault because he is watching too many hittable strikes go by?

But hey, why not make up an imaginary slam on Weeks in a question about JJ Hardy?

Q: dave of green bay - what do the brewers honestly see in laynce nix? the guy is 3 for his last 50.. and hasnt ever shown anything in the big leagues.. wouldnt someone like tony gywn be a better fit??

A: Brewers Mailbag - Tony's father asked the same question when we were in San Diego. And so did I. It seems that Gwynn can bring more to the table than Nix at this point. But Nix was hot in Nashville so they brought him up.

A better mailbag question, and I would LOVE to get an answer for this: What does Gwynn bring to the table...at all? (well besides a .630 OPS(!) in AAA). In 235 big league ABs he has a .607 OPS.

I'm not even really sticking up for Nix, but arguing him or Gwynn for the 25th spot is like arguing whether the Nationals are better than the Padres. For someone who gets paid to cover the Brewers for a living to think that Gwynn brings anything to the table blows my mind.

Will the MJS keep letting these mailbags continue or will they just let him type up game summaries? I think that would be better for all involved.

Ladies and Gentlemen, this is our beat reporter

Q: Jon C of Eau Claire - Hey Tom/Anthony, I was reading something about prospects/draft picks and it made me think....why don't MLB teams trade players for draft picks like they do in the NFL/NBA. you NEVER hear about a team trading a given draft pick, just for prospects that they already have in their farm system. Thanks

A: (Anthony Witrado): Brewers Mailbag - Because draft picks of so coveted, and I imagine most teams would like a prospect instead of a draft pick that might never pan out. Trading away picks is bad for teams because then how else do they replenish the farm?

I'm speechless. The correct answer is "unlike other sports, MLB teams are not allowed to trade draft picks."

Its one thing to read stupid things in the "Comments" section of the JS Online blog. Its another to read stupid and factually incorrect things from the team beat reporter.

Yes Please

Dear Brian and Bill,

Please please please, stop referring to JJ Hardy as one of the top defensive shortstops in baseball.

What Hardy does well: He doesn't make errors. 13 errors last year, and 5 errors this year puts him in the top 10 in the league. When someone hits a ball right at him, he gets to it. This shouldn't be overlooked and is important to look at when evaluating his defense. However, it may not be the most important thing.

What Hardy does not do well: Make plays! He is currently second to last in all of baseball (among SS with enough games) in Zone Rating, and was equally as poor last year. Watching him play, I have always kind of had the impression that Hardy doesn't make a lot of plays in the field....and his zone rating backs that up.

Conclusion: Bill, Brian, Robin Yount, most Brewer fans I talk to: JJ Hardy is probably an average to slighty above average defensive shortstop. Looking at his zone rating would lead you to believe that he is one of the worst....but his lack of errors probably elevate him a little more.

While he does have a good fielding percentage, how much of that is a result of him getting to fewer balls than the rest of MLB shortstops?

Listening to Brian, Bill and Yount last night all at some point refer to Hardy as "maybe the best defensive shortstop in the NL" made my blood boil. Hardy is like the slow, small WR in football. If you throw him a 5 yard curl, he'll catch it, but if you need him to make a special play or get to a difficult ball....it ain't going to happen.

So predictable

Last Monday after Ben Sheets dominated the Atlanta Braves, I sent an email to my brother, that read something like "When do you think Michael Hunt will find out that Ben Sheets is going to be a free agent." Both of us speculated that it would be sometime around the trading deadline, or maybe the upcoming winter when he had nothing else to write about.

Well, rest assured - the Michael Hunt take on Ben Sheets came on June 29th, 2008.

There are many things that ought to surprise us daily in this volatile world, but Ben Sheets reaffirming that he would test free agency this off-season should not be among them.

Sheets saying that last week was like the forecast from the late, great George Carlin's hippie-dippie weatherman:

"Tonight, dark. Continued darkness throughout most of the evening, with some widely scattered light toward morning."

Wow. To be honest, I hadn't bothered to read Hunt's "take" on the Brewers. I really missed his intros.

And Sheets could declare he wouldn't negotiate during the season and not come off as the bad guy because the Milwaukee Brewers have taken the same position. If you're Mark Attanasio or Doug Melvin, what else could you do?

If another medical oddity were visited upon Sheets, why would the Brewers want him back? And if he continues to pitch like this - Sheets is in the top four in the majors in winning percentage, victories, earned run average and complete games - the Brewers could not afford to re-sign him, anyway.

Ok. Though overly wordy, this pretty much sums up what the situation was coming into the year. Its almost like I read this before:

If the 29-year-old right-hander finally has a healthy season and puts up impressive numbers, the Brewers would be hard-pressed to meet his asking price on what has been a runaway pitching market in recent years.

And, should Sheets break down again and turns his four-year, $38.5 million contract into a complete boondoggle, the Brewers would be taken to task for giving him another chance.

-Tom Haudricourt, March 29th

Welcome to the party Mr. Hunt.

The only certainty would be a trade if the Brewers fell from contention, but that's not likely in a season where the National League wild card finally seems accessible from the Central Division. The Brewers' best hope is their ace stays healthy enough to pitch them into the playoffs, and worry about his contract later.

So for those of you counting at home, that was 211 words spent on rehashing the fact that Ben Sheets is a free agent.

Now, the Michael Hunt plan.

But when later comes, what should Attanasio do?

Make your best pitch. Make it very public. And if another team drops Johan Santana or Barry Zito money on Sheets, only the most unrealistic in this town would complain.

Listen. Sometime in the last few years, the Brewers became an actual baseball team. They actually have a plan. They don't make Chuckie Carr type deals anymore. And most importantly, they will spend money.

Most fans realize that if the Brewers don't spend a ton of money on an injury plagued pitcher its not because the Seligs are cheap, its because it isn't in the teams best interest to be competitive long term.

So yeah, make it public, but Milwaukee fans aren't idiots. If Sheets walks they are still going to show up to the games.

Its one thing for fans to perpetuate the myth that the Brewers trade/let go of anyone who is in line to make money, its another for the Journal-Sentinel columnist to do this.

With revenue sharing that increases annually and the chance to draw 3 million at Miller Park this season, the Brewers can occasionally behave like a big-market team. The mutually beneficial $45 million Ryan Braun contract was an example, but a 20-victory pitcher is a whole 'nother tax bracket.

This just baffles me. Signing Braun to that deal is exactly what small market teams do (see Sizemore, Grady; Longoria, Evan; and Tulowitski, Troy; for further examples).

Santana got $137.5 million over six years from the New York Mets. Zito, who is 3-11 with a 5.91 ERA, got $126 million over seven from San Francisco. The Mets and Giants can absorb potentially horrendous contracts with their market size. The Brewers are competitive with an $82 million payroll, but it's doubtful, with the debt service Attanasio inherited and the economy, that it would ever break through $100 million.

So I'm no economics professor, but unless we are entering the great depression (maybe we are?) I have a hard time connecting the poor housing market and rising gas prices with how a major league baseball operates.

The Brewers payroll now is almost double what it was a few years ago, dismissing a $100 million payroll a few years from now if the Brewers continue to be successful is foolish.

Fans don't want to hear that, and, yes, the Brewers should make a reasonable run at Sheets if he stays healthy. There will be financial leeway when Eric Gagné's $10 million contract mercifully expires at the end of the season. And if Prince Fielder doesn't pick it up, he won't hurt the Brewers nearly as much as they thought in arbitration.

Very true, but the issue with Sheets has never been "can they pay him next year" its always been can they afford to pay him $18 million in 2012?

Yovani Gallardo will be back, but can he remain injury free? The other problem is a farm system rich in position players but poor in legitimate pitchers. Meanwhile, this is not a rotation that projects well for 2009 and beyond without Sheets.

Here is where I get totally lost.

Gallardo had a freak injury that had nothing to do with his arm. You might as well ask "can Jeff Suppan remain injury free" because he is just as likely to get hurt as Gallardo.

The Brewers rotation projects fine thank you very much. Assuming the Brewers make no free agent signings to replace Sheets (big assumption) they will still have Parra and Gallardo at the top, Suppan in the middle and other possibilities at 4/5 (Villy, McClung, and maybe even Bush). The poor pitching in the minors may exist in the upper levels, but the talent in the lower levels will probably be making a move up to the big league squad in 2010/2011.

(I realize the above paragraph might not be the biggest relief to Brewer fans, but with an improving Parra and Gallardo at the top of the rotation combined with at least one new pitcher aquired in free agency or a trade, it might already be better than the Cubs or Cards in 2009/10).

So what's reasonable? The Brewers thought $48 million over four was about right for Carlos Lee, until Houston put an absurd $100 million in his pocket. For a healthy Sheets, it's doubtful the Brewers could afford more than $60 million over four. Beyond being unrealistic for a premium starter in his prime, it could be the biggest mistake this franchise ever made if the unreliable Sheets broke down again. Even a half-price Zito-type mistake would be disastrous here.

Actually kind of agree with this. Am I losing my mind?

It's possible the economy could put a drag on the free-agent lunacy and keep Sheets here. More likely, he won't be back because baseball still doesn't have a salary cap.

Mind back. I think I'm just an idiot and don't understand how the economy effects the size of Sheets' contract. Wouldn't what teams are interested, and what other players go for have more of an effect? Anyone? Bueller?

An impractical Brewers fan might be furious if Sheets finally realized his potential in a contract year. A healthier perspective would be to enjoy the ride while it lasts.

Love how he ties it back together....but seriously? If Sheets throws lights out the rest of the year and people are furious let me know, I will punch them in the face (actually pay someone else to do it since I don't venture outside much).

Hey Tom

I talked to my source* and he said the Brewers are firing Yost this afternoon.

Go ahead and put that on the website.

*my dog

Cubs Sign Edmonds, send Pie down

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