Sorry for the barrage of links - I'm aware that other Brewer blogs handle that quite efficiently. However I did want to pass along a new Baseball Prospectus article that examines the Kendall batting 9th strategy.
Link
I naively trust BP to deal with statistics for me, and they usually don't disappoint. Here is basically the conclusion that Dan Fox comes to:
What makes it work in this case is that Kendall's combination of an adequate OBP and a woeful slugging percentage is not that different from the typical ninth spot hitter in the order. This means that when batting eighth he won't be driving in many of the four-through-seventh place hitters who reach base, but when hitting ninth he gets on base enough to allow Fielder and Braun opportunities to drive him in, resulting in a net offensive gain. It appears the break-even for this strategy as far as the Brewers go is somewhere around Kendall delivering a .360 SLG. That is, if Kendall's slugging percentage were .360 or higher (while delivering the same OBP), it would essentially be a wash as to whether to bat him eighth or ninth.
I think it makes sense. I get the feeling from reading different opinions on the topic that it really doesn't matter that much. What does matter? The starting rotation. Ned- lets settle that now and we'll spend more time on Kendall later.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
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1 comments:
my only thought is that when the bases are loaded with 2 outs and the 8 spot (pitcher) comes up, folks won't be happy. personally i don't have any problems with the strategy. if it works, great, if not just go back to what we've been doing for 100 years.
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