Friday, March 14, 2008

Thank you Chicago

So I know I've made fun of Ryan Theriot and the Cubs plan to bat him 2nd. With the various options the Cubs have it seems suspect to put him and his .325 OBP in the top of the order.

Well to the Brewers dismay, the Cubs have listened. Yesterday Pinella unveiled new plans for the top of the order. He is planning to bat Theriot in the leadoff position.

Yes, Lou is going to give the guy getting with a .323 OBP and no power the most at bats.

New route to heart of the order

First the article goes through some reasons why Soriano isn't the best for the leadoff spot. You'll notice none of these are the real reasons he shouldn't be: he strikes out a lot and his power isn't best utilized in top of the order.

He (Pinella) later drove home the point: "The weather's cold in Chicago when we play the first six weeks or so of the season. And to get [Soriano] to the point where he might have to run [batting first], it's just taking chances."

You signed him to an 8 year $136 Million contract and now (in year 2) you're worried that he will get hurt because of the cold weather? Yikes.

More importantly. This leads me to believe that you really want Theriot to run a lot while your top HR threats sit in the 2-3-4 spot. Milwaukee thanks you.

"The first time I bat second in a big-league game [and] somebody was on base," Soriano said. "I did not feel very comfortable. I think I'll have to make a little adjustment. I have to play a couple more games batting second and see how I feel.

Milwaukee continues to think this is a good idea. Thank God Braun, Fielder, and the Brewer's other power hitters feel comfortable with men on base. Thank God.

......
1. Ryan Theriot. More of a prototypical leadoff hitter than Soriano because he still can steal bases with his fresh legs.

Prototypical leadoff hitters don't have .325 OBP. They just don't. And what the hell do you mean by "fresh legs." If the Cubs get Brian Roberts will they bat him 8th because his legs aren't as "fresh" as Theriot's?

2. Alfonso Soriano. Not a prototypical No. 2 either. But think of it this way: If he hits a homer his first time at-bat (he hit 12 last year), then some have a chance to score two runs instead of one because Theriot will be on base. Plus, he could become a huge RBI man if Theriot leads off with a single, steals second and scores on a single.

What a novel idea, bat your better power hitters towards the bottom of the order. Behind guys who get on base a lot (unlike Theriot).

Oh...to drive in Theriot after he steals 2nd? I don't have time to do a statistical study on how many extra RBIs Soriano gets because Theriot steals second base. Here is what is needed for this to happen:
  1. Gets on base (.325 chance)
  2. Steals base (he reached first base 152 times last year - attempted a steal about 25% of the time)
  3. Soriano gets a single - .282 career avg.
  4. Single is hit to a place where Theriot can advance from second

I would guess the Theriot single- 2B steal- Soriano single to drive him home happens less than 5 times per year? Is this above/below MLB average? Not sure.

Keep in mind while Theriot has above average speed, he isn't among the league's best and he doesn't get on base as frequently as a good leadoff person would.

So to sum up - while Milwaukee isn't in a place to talk about weird lineups, we love the Dusty Baker type of pontificating and the misuse of a large payroll.

Keep it coming.

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