Well, rest assured - the Michael Hunt take on Ben Sheets came on June 29th, 2008.
There are many things that ought to surprise us daily in this volatile world, but Ben Sheets reaffirming that he would test free agency this off-season should not be among them.
Sheets saying that last week was like the forecast from the late, great George Carlin's hippie-dippie weatherman:
"Tonight, dark. Continued darkness throughout most of the evening, with some widely scattered light toward morning."
Wow. To be honest, I hadn't bothered to read Hunt's "take" on the Brewers. I really missed his intros.
And Sheets could declare he wouldn't negotiate during the season and not come off as the bad guy because the Milwaukee Brewers have taken the same position. If you're Mark Attanasio or Doug Melvin, what else could you do?
If another medical oddity were visited upon Sheets, why would the Brewers want him back? And if he continues to pitch like this - Sheets is in the top four in the majors in winning percentage, victories, earned run average and complete games - the Brewers could not afford to re-sign him, anyway.
Ok. Though overly wordy, this pretty much sums up what the situation was coming into the year. Its almost like I read this before:
If the 29-year-old right-hander finally has a healthy season and puts up impressive numbers, the Brewers would be hard-pressed to meet his asking price on what has been a runaway pitching market in recent years.
And, should Sheets break down again and turns his four-year, $38.5 million contract into a complete boondoggle, the Brewers would be taken to task for giving him another chance.
-Tom Haudricourt, March 29th
Welcome to the party Mr. Hunt.
The only certainty would be a trade if the Brewers fell from contention, but that's not likely in a season where the National League wild card finally seems accessible from the Central Division. The Brewers' best hope is their ace stays healthy enough to pitch them into the playoffs, and worry about his contract later.
So for those of you counting at home, that was 211 words spent on rehashing the fact that Ben Sheets is a free agent.
Now, the Michael Hunt plan.
But when later comes, what should Attanasio do?
Make your best pitch. Make it very public. And if another team drops Johan Santana or Barry Zito money on Sheets, only the most unrealistic in this town would complain.
Listen. Sometime in the last few years, the Brewers became an actual baseball team. They actually have a plan. They don't make Chuckie Carr type deals anymore. And most importantly, they will spend money.
Most fans realize that if the Brewers don't spend a ton of money on an injury plagued pitcher its not because the Seligs are cheap, its because it isn't in the teams best interest to be competitive long term.
So yeah, make it public, but Milwaukee fans aren't idiots. If Sheets walks they are still going to show up to the games.
Its one thing for fans to perpetuate the myth that the Brewers trade/let go of anyone who is in line to make money, its another for the Journal-Sentinel columnist to do this.
With revenue sharing that increases annually and the chance to draw 3 million at Miller Park this season, the Brewers can occasionally behave like a big-market team. The mutually beneficial $45 million Ryan Braun contract was an example, but a 20-victory pitcher is a whole 'nother tax bracket.
This just baffles me. Signing Braun to that deal is exactly what small market teams do (see Sizemore, Grady; Longoria, Evan; and Tulowitski, Troy; for further examples).
Santana got $137.5 million over six years from the New York Mets. Zito, who is 3-11 with a 5.91 ERA, got $126 million over seven from San Francisco. The Mets and Giants can absorb potentially horrendous contracts with their market size. The Brewers are competitive with an $82 million payroll, but it's doubtful, with the debt service Attanasio inherited and the economy, that it would ever break through $100 million.
So I'm no economics professor, but unless we are entering the great depression (maybe we are?) I have a hard time connecting the poor housing market and rising gas prices with how a major league baseball operates.
The Brewers payroll now is almost double what it was a few years ago, dismissing a $100 million payroll a few years from now if the Brewers continue to be successful is foolish.
Fans don't want to hear that, and, yes, the Brewers should make a reasonable run at Sheets if he stays healthy. There will be financial leeway when Eric Gagné's $10 million contract mercifully expires at the end of the season. And if Prince Fielder doesn't pick it up, he won't hurt the Brewers nearly as much as they thought in arbitration.
Very true, but the issue with Sheets has never been "can they pay him next year" its always been can they afford to pay him $18 million in 2012?
Yovani Gallardo will be back, but can he remain injury free? The other problem is a farm system rich in position players but poor in legitimate pitchers. Meanwhile, this is not a rotation that projects well for 2009 and beyond without Sheets.
Here is where I get totally lost.
Gallardo had a freak injury that had nothing to do with his arm. You might as well ask "can Jeff Suppan remain injury free" because he is just as likely to get hurt as Gallardo.
The Brewers rotation projects fine thank you very much. Assuming the Brewers make no free agent signings to replace Sheets (big assumption) they will still have Parra and Gallardo at the top, Suppan in the middle and other possibilities at 4/5 (Villy, McClung, and maybe even Bush). The poor pitching in the minors may exist in the upper levels, but the talent in the lower levels will probably be making a move up to the big league squad in 2010/2011.
(I realize the above paragraph might not be the biggest relief to Brewer fans, but with an improving Parra and Gallardo at the top of the rotation combined with at least one new pitcher aquired in free agency or a trade, it might already be better than the Cubs or Cards in 2009/10).
So what's reasonable? The Brewers thought $48 million over four was about right for Carlos Lee, until Houston put an absurd $100 million in his pocket. For a healthy Sheets, it's doubtful the Brewers could afford more than $60 million over four. Beyond being unrealistic for a premium starter in his prime, it could be the biggest mistake this franchise ever made if the unreliable Sheets broke down again. Even a half-price Zito-type mistake would be disastrous here.
Actually kind of agree with this. Am I losing my mind?
It's possible the economy could put a drag on the free-agent lunacy and keep Sheets here. More likely, he won't be back because baseball still doesn't have a salary cap.
Mind back. I think I'm just an idiot and don't understand how the economy effects the size of Sheets' contract. Wouldn't what teams are interested, and what other players go for have more of an effect? Anyone? Bueller?
An impractical Brewers fan might be furious if Sheets finally realized his potential in a contract year. A healthier perspective would be to enjoy the ride while it lasts.
Love how he ties it back together....but seriously? If Sheets throws lights out the rest of the year and people are furious let me know, I will punch them in the face (actually pay someone else to do it since I don't venture outside much).
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